Table l. Checklist for Making a Differential Diagnosis

I. Poverty Trap

Poverty mapping
Proportion of households lacking basic needs
Spatial distribution of household poverty
Spatial distribution of basic infrastructure (power, roads, telecoms, water and sanitation)
Ethnic, gender, generational distribution of poverty
Key risk factors
    Demographic trends
    Environmental trends
    Climate shocks
    Commodity price fluctuations

II. Economic Policy Framework

Business environment
Trade policy
Investment policy
Human capital

III. Fiscal Framework and Fiscal Trap

Public sector revenues and expenditures by category
    Percent of GNP
    Absolute levels in comparison with international norms
Tax administration and expenditure management
Public investment needs to meet poverty reduction targets
Macroeconomic instability
Overhang of public sector debt
Quasi-fiscal debt and hidden debt
Medium-term public sector expenditure framework

IV. Physical Geography

Transport conditions
    Proximity of population to ports, international trade routes, navigable waterways
    Access of population to paved roads
    Access of population to motorized transport
Population density
    Costs of connectivity to power, telecoms, roads
    Arable land per capita
    Environmental impacts of population-land ratios
Agronomic conditions
    Temperature, precipitation, solar insolation
    Length and reliability of growing season
    Soils, topography, suitability for irrigation
    Interannual climate variability (e.g., El Nino)
    Long-term trends in climate patterns
Disease ecology
    Human diseases
    Plant diseases and pests
    Animal diseases

V. Governance Patterns and Failures

Civil and political rights
Public management systems
Decentralization and fiscal federalism
Corruption patterns and intensity
Political succession and longevity
Internal violence and security
Cross-border violence and security
Ethnic, religious, and other cultural divisions
VI. Cultural Barriers

Gender relations
Ethnic and religious divisions

VII. Geopolitics

International security relations
Cross-border security threats
International sanctions
Trade barriers
Participation in regional and international groups